For a deeper understanding on what’s happening in Texas, we leveraged Resonate’s artificial intelligence (AI) platform to analyze the current partisan divide in the state, focusing on how voters identify politically and then assessing the levels of partisanship present in their media consumption habits. Here’s what we found:

Republicans Hold Majority Support – Independents Outnumber Democrats

When assessing which political party voters in Texas self-identify with, our predictive models show that Republicans still hold the lion’s share of support with 40% — compared to 25% Democrats. No big surprise here considering recent election results.

The real game changer could be in the purple. Our models show that 29% of registered voters in Texas now identify as Independents. Such a big slice of voters not identifying with a party helps us understand the heightened level of uncertainty that’s crept into Texas this cycle. It should also serve notice to both sides: the path to victory needs to include a sophisticated Independent outreach strategy.

The Media Bubble Phenomenon: How Online Behavioral Activity Translates to Real World Patterns 
Using AI powered solutions, Resonate is enabling the modern political campaign to identify-analyze-target ideologically driven, private communication channels in the digital world, better known as “media bubbles”. These strategies are deployed to better understand political landscapes through real-time behavioral patterns and leverage deep voter insights to target persuadables trapped in hostile media environments. Learn more about the role of media bubbles in modern day politics.

Texas Bubbles
Media Consumption Leans Conservative –Liberal Consumption Also Evident

The above map represents the average level of liberal-conservative bias in online news consumed by Texas voters – at zip code level. Congressional boundaries are drawn to understand the various media bubbles throughout each congressional district.

Given our models show self-Identifying Republicans outnumbering Democrats in Texas by 15%, it’s no surprise that the behavioral data – represented in the above map – shows on average most Texans consume conservative news online.

However, heavy purple patches on the southern border and blue pockets throughout the state tell us the conversation is far from one-sided.

With six months until Election Day, there’s plenty of stories and facts yet to be told. The side that ends up controlling the conversation often comes down to who tells their story best – to the right voters – at the right time.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare, providing a detailed look at the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics and how campaigns can leverage AI to disrupt voter behavior throughout campaign lifecycles.

Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers

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Want to learn more about the digital media bubble phenomena in modern day politics? View the SlideShare – Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

Statewide and local operatives in Pennsylvania would be wise to pay close attention to the patterns emerging in their target areas. Having real-time access to this level of voter behavioral intelligence will best position campaigns to:

• Identify emerging pockets of momentum prime for Get-Out-The-Vote and mobilization efforts.
• Locate and target high-yield counties and districts home to Independents sympathetic to the campaign’s messaging.
• Combat harmful news stories – as they break – by establishing counter narratives online that target and are tailored to sympathetic voters trapped in opposition media bubbles.

The below map identifies digital media bubbles throughout the state of Pennsylvania. The wave of purple indicates that the majority of Keystone State voters are having election-based conversations that are consistent with an independent narrative. Conservatives nor liberals hold an outright advantage in conservation control.

Resonate’s AI (artificial intelligence) solutions allow campaigns to see clearly into murky political landscapes like Pennsylvania by understanding how digital behavioral patterns are informing voter positioning throughout the course of election cycles.

Media Bubble Methodology

• Machine-learning technology, observing 10B online events daily, monitored all news consumed by individual devices located in Pennsylvania – at zip code scale.
• Automated URL and contextual analysis quantified the ideological slant of every publication along conservative and liberal lines.
• The proportion of bias in media consumption was calculated, at zip code level, by averaging the activity of all devices observed within each zip’s boundaries.

Understanding the Results

• The maps use a color-scale to show the average proportion of conservative news consumed per zip code: 0.2 (most liberal) to 0.9 (most conservative).
• Example: 0.3 color would mean on average, 30% of a device’s behavior is conservative in that zip code (by extension, 70% on average is liberal).
• White space represents areas where census is too low to provide adequate data.

PA-07

The above map documents real-time media bubbles throughout PA-07, a toss-up House race recently redrawn to advantage Republicans. However, the Republican incumbent who dominated the district in years past resigned this year amidst scandal, which changed the status of the PA-07 midterm from “safe” to “toss-up”.

The behavioral patterns we see in PA-07 today support how close things are in the district this year. While the voters in the western part of the district are largely engaging with conservative media, voters in the east have a demand for independent and liberal-based media.

This type of localized behavioral intelligence can serve as a strategic weapon for both sides. In the case of PA-07, Republicans can capitalize on the heavy momentum they have out west towards Lancaster, while Democrats can do the same in the east towards Philadelphia. When it comes to engaging the independent-minded voters who often decide the margins in the toss-ups, both sides should focus on the heart of the district where the minds are open and the conservation is mild.

Stay Tuned for More Resonate AI Behavioral Maps

In the coming weeks, Resonate will be publishing a series of media bubble maps like those seen in Pennsylvania, leveraging AI to measure voter behavior and sentiment in the most competitive states and districts.

Want to learn more about media bubbles? Check out Resonate’s free SlideShare presentation that provides a detailed assessment of the media bubble phenomena in modern day politics: Breaching the Bubble: Establishing an Effective Counter Narrative in an Era of Echo Chambers.

The post Understanding Voter Behavior in Pennsylvania – An Unpredictable Battleground appeared first on Resonate.